Climate mitigation and reduction in GHGs, and the path to meeting the goal of the Paris Agreement to keep the global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, appears uncertain. A change of administration in the United States that has very different climate change and energy policies, political uncertainty and emerging push back on climate change policies in Europe, an adjustment in corporate net-zero ambitions, and planned new investment in significant fossil-fuel energy generation by China and India, among other factors, all contribute to this uncertainty.
What does this mean? It does not mean government and private-sector climate change mitigation efforts should cease; in fact, they should be redoubled since technological innovation and private-sector investments supported by government policy and related legal frameworks will be the key to address GHG emissions. However, the realities of likely warming scenarios should be recognized, and adaptation should rise to a higher priority in the climate change–related conversation.
Climate change adaptation is the process of adjusting to the effects of climate change. Unlike climate mitigation, which focuses on reducing GHG emissions, adaptation seeks to reduce the vulnerabilities and risks due to climate impacts caused by those emissions. Adaptation can refer to the adjustment to ecological, social, or economic systems in response to actual or expected changes that communities, ecosystems, and economies face.
The adaptation conversation will need to occur in varying forums. At the international level, the Paris Agreement calls for financial and technical support (e.g., Green Climate Fund) to help countries cope with the impacts of climate change. Nations that are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and the least able to adapt will need support from developed nations to avoid the worst-case scenarios related to climate refugees; the United Nations Refugee Agency has projected that, by 2050, between 25 million to 1 billion people could be displaced due to climate change.
In the United States, federal, state, and local policies combine to create a patchwork of legal frameworks relevant to climate change adaptation. At the federal level, the level of funding for state and municipal climate resilience projects or federal insurance policies, for example, may need to be reassessed. However, consequential adaptation issues will also likely occur at the state and local levels, where basic land use decisions are made, i.e., what infrastructure should be built or maintained and where, given the likely future climate change impacts. Future zoning regulations, floodplain and coastal management, existing ecosystem preservation, and property rights, among other issues, will all play an increasingly important role in discussing adaptation.
While the fight against climate change is ongoing, given the current realities and the potential future warming scenarios, it would be wise for policymakers and ABA Section of Environment, Energy, and Resources members who work in this space to redouble efforts to prioritize adaptation.
