The race to net zero has started. The Paris Agreement sets a goal to keep the global average temperature from rising by 1.5°C above preindustrial levels and, failing that, prevent it from rising 2°C. To reach this goal, carbon dioxide (CO₂.) emissions need to be reduced by 45% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050. What is net zero (otherwise called carbon neutrality)? Generally, net zero CO₂. emissions occur when CO₂. emissions are balanced globally by CO₂. removals over a specified period, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Achieving net zero will involve a combination of reducing or eliminating CO₂. and other greenhouse gas emissions, in addition to removing CO₂. emissions via natural and mechanical removal and sequestration. International, national, subnational, and non-state actors are setting net zero goals. The question is not only who will win the race to achieve net zero emissions, but whether we will win the race against time to meet the Paris Agreement’s goals to avoid the worst-case implications associated with climate change.
Europe appears to be the early leader. The European Union (EU) has a legally binding net zero target—net zero emissions by 2050—enshrined in the European Green Deal, with the implementation plan to meet this goal embracing a whole-of-economy approach. The EU’s policies are crafted to facilitate the decoupling of economic growth from carbon emissions and resource use in a shift to climate neutrality. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and its disruption on EU energy transition planning, illustrates the best-laid implementation plans will face hurdles.
In the United States, the federal government has no legal requirement to meet net zero, though it is the Biden Administration’s policy that the U.S. should reach net zero CO₂. emissions by 2050. Unlike the EU, the United States does not have a holistic climate change legal framework, though via the Inflation Reduction Act, it made its largest investment to date in climate mitigation to meet this goal.
The real race in the United States is at the state and local levels and in the private sector. New York recently set a legally mandated target to reach net zero by 2050. California—never to be outdone—finalized its most recent plan under state law, which sets a requirement to meet climate neutrality by 2045, and has a head start on New York and other jurisdictions. While the net zero goals being set are often the same or similar, what is emerging is different implementation plans under state law to meet these targets. California, for example, expects carbon capture and sequestration, including direct air capture, to be a necessary and critical part of the state’s implementation plan, whereas it doesn’t play a large role in New York’s plan. Unlike New York, California also emphasizes establishing and scaling up the use of hydrogen across hard-to-decarbonize industrial sectors.
Corporations are also setting net zero goals, often with targets decades ahead of the Paris Agreement’s 2050 target. However, there are significant differences associated with these pledges, including, for example, whether the pledge is accompanied by a detailed implementation plan, covers Scope 3 emissions, and relies on emission reductions or offsets via carbon credits. Notwithstanding these questions, the private sector is set on a path to invest billions into climate mitigation, with this investment often supercharged via government policies.
There are lingering questions associated with net zero, including whether it is the correct target to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. What is clear is that aggressive net zero targets have been set, the implementation to meet these goals will have implications globally and locally, and the public and private sectors are off to the races.
