The 2024 Election and its Impact on Business Lawyers

United States elections, especially over the past decade, have become increasingly tense events. The heightened political tensions, spilling over into such events like the January 6, 2021 assault on the Capitol, impact not only the fabric of our nation, but businesses operating throughout the nation. The political temperature in the United States is high, proving to be a challenge for businesses to navigate.

This program, “The Most Important Election of Our Lifetimes… Again: The 2024 Election and its Effect on Business Lawyers” will delve into how the possible change of control of one or both houses of Congress will affect you in your personal and professional lives. Business lawyers will have to adjust their expectations and "asks" accordingly depending upon their clients’ and/or company’s interests, which may or may not be in vogue under a new regime. Building or reestablishing relationships with those newly in power will be key.

We are in a unique time in politics where in this fall’s elections, control of the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives may all change control and in different directions between Republicans and Democrats. The current White House occupants are Democratic President Joe Biden and Vice-President Kamala Harris. Vice-President Harris can break any ties in the Senate, thus giving Democrats the tie-breaking vote in an evenly split body.

There are, however, currently 51 Senators who align themselves with the Democratic party, including 47 Democrats and four independents from Maine, Vermont, West Virginia, and Arizona, and 49 Republicans. Thirty-four Senate seats are being contested in 2024 with the Democrats playing defense as 22 of these seats are currently held by Democrats. Only about eleven Senate seats are being seriously contested, with the seven closest races being for those held currently by Democratic Senators.

All 435 members of the House of Representatives are up for re-election in 2024. Republicans currently hold a slim 220-212 House majority with three vacant seats. The battle for control of the chamber is expected to be very close, with 270 to Win currently opining that there are 207 safe or leaning seats for each party and 21 that are toss-ups. The most contested races are evenly split between those currently held by Democrats and those in Republican hands. Unlike Senate seats that are statewide, some state legislatures have engaged in aggressive maneuvering to tilt the scales to their legislative majorities’ benefit.

State legislative and gubernatorial races also play an influential role in the day-to-day operation of businesses. There are eleven contests for governor this fall, including four open seat races due to retirements or term limits in Indiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Washington. Forty-three states will hold elections for the state legislature this year, with the balance of power being particularly closes in states such as Arizona, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The uncertainty caused by the 2024 elections in terms of who will control the White House and Congress places stress on both individuals and companies. Internal company policies that may be in vogue with the current party in power may fall out of favor in Washington by 2025. Business lawyers will need to wrestle with the pressures of Washington and the expectations of company employees. Changes in control between parties in Washington may result in major shifts in economic and social policy, immigration, and foreign relations. It will also require businesses and their representatives to develop or reenergize relationships with a new cast of leadership. Business lawyers need to be prepared to potentially see changes in those areas and weigh in with concerns appropriately.

Further a majority party switch – or even a minority party in a state electing just enough of its members to prevent a supermajority of the other party – can have a direct effect on the lives of American workers. For example, some companies have offered to pay for the travel expenses of employees, their spouses, and partners, to receive reproductive healthcare access if they live in states that have tightly restricted such access in the wake of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. These policies have largely been embraced by employees and may be considered a selling point to companies looking to attract and retain talent. On the other hand, these polices may cause companies to face scrutiny if even one chamber switches hands. In addition, if the chambers switch hands, business lawyers will need to establish and/or reestablish relationships with the officials and staffers in power.

Beyond legislative activity, control of Congress and the White House will play a significant role in the federal investigations we see in 2025 and beyond. This not only include what industries will be the focus of investigations, but whether certain individuals or groups will be targeted due to their support for the party turned out of power. Even well settled laws such as Obamacare and the American Rescue Plan could be under attack depending on the outcome of the 2024 elections. And the Rule of Law may face its own challenge if the results of the 2024 election are close on Election Night and the days following.

The American political atmosphere seems to change on a weekly – and sometimes daily – basis. It is imperative that a business lawyer working in this area stay abreast of each development so that they are properly advising their clients. The goal of this program is to provide the business lawyer with guidance for how to keep current in this evolving world.