Surge or Stagnation: Looking Ahead to 2024
By Malcolm Deisz, University of St. Thomas – School of Law
2023 was, by most accounts, a notably slow year for mergers & acquisitions. While the volume of deals has stayed consistent, the value of M&A-related transactions is down approximately 25 percent. With the total value of deals sitting at $2.7 billion heading into December, the year is poised to be the lowest in M&A transaction value since 2013. There are plenty of reasons identified by practitioners, ranging from geopolitical conflict to a decrease in private equity activity in the sector. Despite this downturn in activity, some signs indicate 2024 may see activity pick back up.
The costs for high-grade issuers have decreased significantly in the past two months. Additionally, signs indicate that inflation rates are slowing down, with the Federal Reserve indicating that it will likely implement several rate cuts in 2024 as it approaches its 2 percent inflation target. Lowering costs to finance deals could spur the appetites of companies previously deterred by the conditions in 2023.
While promising signs exist for the M&A market, many companies are still struggling with the ramifications of utilizing cheap credit to finance large deals. According to a Bloomberg News Study, over half of the companies involved in debt-financed acquisitions have managed to cut their leverage ratios in the time since their acquisitions. Inability to realize profits, or worse, suffering significant losses on debt-financed deals may have a chilling effect on companies looking to engage in leveraged acquisitions in 2024.
Not to be overlooked is the increased scrutiny deals have received from the Federal Trade Commission throughout 2023. Increased litigation activity has been apparent, particularly among more significant deals. On December 18, the FTC, alongside the Department of Justice, released the final 2023 Merger Guidelines. These guidelines reflect a more aggressive approach to merger review and seem to indicate that the government agencies tasked with regulating and reviewing mergers and acquisitions will continue at the increased pace that we have seen in 2023.
From the staggering numbers seen following the pandemic to the relative lull of 2023, the mergers and acquisitions market has proven that it can change quickly. While many optimists hope to see their predictions of renewed activity fulfilled, it remains to be seen whether the dip in activity characterized by 2023 will continue into the new year.