As the dust settles from the 2024 elections, the political landscape in Washington has undergone a significant transformation. The Republican Party now controls all three branches of the U.S. Government, marking a pivotal shift in governance and policy direction. Adding a historical dimension to this new chapter, the 2024 election marked only the second time in U.S. history that a former president returned for a nonconsecutive term. The last instance occurred over a century ago when Grover Cleveland assumed office in 1885 and then again in 1893.
In resuming power, the Trump Administration is leveraging its experience to swiftly staff the government, set a decisive agenda, and execute sweeping executive actions. With the Supreme Court’s recent decision affirming presidential immunity from liability for official acts, we expect that the administration will act with greater confidence and assertiveness early in its term.
In Congress, the Republican Party successfully flipped the Senate, achieving a 53-47 majority in the upper chamber. Republicans elected South Dakota Sen. John Thune as the next Senate majority leader, completing a momentous shift in their leadership that elevates a top deputy of Sen. Mitch McConnell into a key position.
Meanwhile, Republicans retained control of the House of Representatives with the narrowest of margins after notable Republican departures from the House. Florida Rep. Mike Waltz is expected to become the national security adviser, and New York Rep. Elise Stefanik has been nominated to serve as ambassador to the United Nations. Additionally, Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz stepped down from Congress following his nomination by the President-elect for attorney general but later withdrew from consideration due to strong resistance from some Republicans.
As a result, the Republican House majority currently stands at 219 to 215, with that lead lessening once Rep. Waltz resigns and other representatives are confirmed, making it the smallest House majority since the 1930s. There is no room for error with a majority this small, as demonstrated on January 3rd during the Speaker of the House election, where the Republicans could afford to lose only one vote. Mike Johnson won that election, but only after he and the then President-elect convinced two Republicans to change their no votes to yes.